Uttar Pradesh gave early premonition of clear mandate

UP gave early signals of 'clear mandate'. Political observers had written obituary of the Congress party. But, it rose from the ashes, much like the fabled phoenix. Rahul Gandhi is seen as the architect of its victory in the state and the country.


CJ: Arindam Roy, 7 days ago Views:797 Comments:6

UTTAR PRADESH has often been called the microcosm of India. Its popular mood is often paralleled and mirrored in the rest of the country. In the last Assembly elections, political pundits opined that UP Assembly would have a fractured mandate. They were wrong. People gave a clear mandate to Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and its leader, Mayawati. The crux was ‘clear mandate’.

In fact, UP gave a premonition of a ‘clear mandate’ in the last Assembly elections.

In the 2009 Lok sabha elections, as the trends and later the results started pouring in, the popular mood of the country was like writing on the wall, loud and clear. It gave a ‘clear mandate’ to the Congress party and the alliance it heads, the UPA. At the national level, Congress emerged as the largest single party, while UPA emerged as the major alliance with 256 seats, heads and shoulders above its opponent, the NDA, which managed to garner just 162 seats.

Once again, it proved that the various exit and opinion polls, with the exception of one, were terribly wrong. Psephologists and journalists seem to have lost sync with the people.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, no one had predicted the reemergence of the Congress after almost two decades. Political observers had written its obituary. But, it rose from the ashes, much like the fabled phoenix. Congress won 20 odd seats. BSP, which people felt would emerge as the largest party (it was leading at one point, earlier in the day) also got as many seats as the Congress. The Samajwadi Party (SP) emerged as the largest party, just getting three seats more than Congress and BSP, with 23 seats in its kitty.

BJP surprisingly took a terrible beating. It barely managed to win 11 seats and with its pre-poll alliance partner, Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) getting five seats, the NDA (or whatever remained of it in UP) managed to get just 16 seats; with ‘Others’ winning a lone seat, UP gave its verdict for all 80 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha, on Saturday (May 16).

Congress MLA from City North (Allahabad), Anugrah Narain Singh, talking to this scribe, said, “Congress party’s thumping victory in the country and the state, is the victory of its pro-poor, pro-farmers and pro-people policy. Young Rahul Gandhi is the architect of the party’s victory in the state. He represented the humane (meeting poor people, eating with them, etc) and aspirations of the youth. Soniaji’s supreme sacrifice and the PM Manmohan Singhji’s good governance, along with his ability to take a resolute step in favour of the Nuke deal translated into votes.”

He added, “The Left parties were punished for opposing the deal. Land issues and other petty issues, often local or regional added up to its misfortune. The people voted for stability and good governance. Indian democracy has matured. The mood of the smart electorate is illusive for analysts, now.”

Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi won from their respective seats. The other Gandhis, another mother son duo, Maneka Gandhi and Varun Gandhi too won their respective seats on BJP tickets.

Jaya Prada, the damsel in distress from Rampur was all smiles, as she won on SP ticket, humbling Noor Bano (Congress) and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi (BJP). The aura of controversy and infighting in the party, with Azam Khan baring Rampuri knives, figuratively speaking, had to eat a humble pie.

The former cricketer Mohd Azharuddin too emerged victorious on Congress ticket from Moradabad.

Murli Manohar Joshi surprised many with his miraculous win from the temple town of Varanasi. He lost the last general election, in 2004, after being returned to the Parliament for three successive terms from Allahabad, where he taught Physics in Allahabad University. Allahabad does not send the same person twice or thrice easily. Jawaharlal Nehru was one of the few exceptions, other than the think tank of BJP, Joshi, to enjoy this feat. He quit Allahabad to contest from neighbouring Varanasi. The gamble paid off favourably for him.

Another Joshi from Allahabad, Rita Bahuguna Joshi is now the Congress MP from Lucknow. She defeated Nafisa Ali (SP). A former teacher of History in Allahabad University, she is the daughter of Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna. Like MM Joshi she too lost an election here and had left the city to try her luck in the state capital. The similarity is uncanny, observe many.

Reoti Raman Singh (Allahabad) and Shailendra Kumar (Kaushambi), both sitting MPs of the SP won, while the Phulpur seat was retained by the BSP candidate Kapilmuni Karwaria, who defeated Shyama Charan Gupta, a bidi tycoon and an hotelier, of SP.

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Mayawati punished, national parties favoured in UP

As the two national parties surge ahead, with the Congress-led alliance with an edge over the BJP-led NDA, it's safe to deduce that Mayawati has been severely punished for entertaining the very gundas, whom she had vowed would be put behind bars.

CJ: Arindam Roy, 7 days ago Views:586 Comments:1

IF EARLY trends are any indication, one thing is loud and clear that the people have rejected the regional satraps in Uttar Pradesh. The UPA is way ahead of the NDA with a lead in 228 seats as compares to 160 for the latter, at the time of filing this report.

In the last Assembly election in the state, the polity had rejected the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mulayam Singh Yadav, as he was seen to be hobnobbing with goons and mafias. Mayawati, the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) chief had assured the people that she would end this gunda raj. The popular slogan was, “Char gundo ki chati par, mohar lagega hathi par.”

Strangely, after her taste of power, she was so heady that she forgot her own slogans and promises. She fielded several goons and mafias, in the Lok Sabha election. Political pundits felt that the fight in this General Election would still be between BSP and SP, with Congress and BJP being non-existent in the state. They were completely wrong as were most journalists.

As the two national parties surge ahead, with the Congress-led alliance with an edge over the BJP-led NDA, it’s safe to deduce that Mayawati has been severely punished for entertaining the very gundas, whom she had vowed would be put behind bars and thus give UP a clean, ‘bhai-mukta sarkar’ (fear free government). She has paid for her sins, just as Yadav did in the recent past.

Another thing is clear. As BSP is being humbled in UP, the prime ministerial dreams of Mayawati have been dashed and she would be a very angry person. This would mean some more transfers of the top bureaucrats and police officers.

Meanwhile, Varun Gandhi, the poster boy of BJP is leading from Pilibhit, while the think tank of the saffron party, Murli Manohar Joshi, is reportedly leading from Varanasi.

Joshi’s lead is a surprise and no less than a miracle. It needs to be pointed out that the people of Allahabad had given him the rare honour of representing them, three times in a row, until they decided to trounce him in the last Lok Sabha elections of 2004. Joshi had to concede defeat to Reoti Raman Singh, a state minister, who was a mere pigmy compared to his opponent.

Meanwhile, Jayaprada the celebrity SP candidate from Rampur was also trailing. Azam Khan’s opposing her from within harmed her more than the challenge she had from her other political opponents, from other parties.

(http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=15769634)

Backstabbing and glamour mark final poll phase in UP

A wronged cine-actress-turned-politician Jaya Prada is defending her honour, while a former cricketer, Azharuddin, is trying his luck in politics. SP's stake is high, while other parties are eying gains in the final phase of polls in UP.

CJ: Arindam Roy, 13 May 2009 Views:393 Comments:1

SLANDER, SLEAZE, knives and backstabbing – these are the five words that capture the ethos of the Rampur Lok Sabha constituency, as polling is on, for 14 constituencies of Uttar Pradesh, in the fifth and final phase, on Wednesday (May 13).

The damsel in distress is the cine-actress-turned-politician Jaya Prada, a high profile Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate. She blamed Azam Khan for circulating her morphed nude pictures. She was in tears, was furious and gentle by turns adding to the melodrama of this constituency. Jaya, the sitting MP’s fight is at several levels, both inter and intra-party clashes, her honour and dignity questioned. It’s sad that the Election Commission took no notice of the terribly disgusting level of politics in this city, well known for its knives.

Noor Bano, of the princely family of Rampur, is the Congress candidate, pitted against Jaya Prada. The infighting in SP may be to her advantage, as Congress openly wooed Azam Khan, while the SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had to handle him with a velvet glove, despite his open spat with Amar Singh. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi is contesting on BJP ticket. He may be a surprise winner in this fight between these two ladies, Jaya Prada and Noor Bano, feel political observers.

Mohd. Azharauddin has one thing common with Jaya Prada; they both belong to Andhra Pradesh but have made UP their political battleground. Azharuddin is another celebrity, a former cricket captain of India, who is contesting polls from Moradabad, on Congress ticket. Though a large crowd had been following the cricketer, all during his campaign, it needs to be seen if he can convert his popularity into victory. During an interview to a prominent TV channel, Azhar said that he has asked his voters to think the polling to be a Ten10 cricket match (not even Twenty20), go out early and vote in his favour. He also added that in cricket, selection depends on five persons but in a poll it's lakhs that decide the fate of the candidate. It needs to be seen if Azhar is accepted by the city well known globally for its brassware.

The poster boy of BJP, Varun Gandhi, the new angry young man, is contesting from Pilibhit. His candidature was mired in controversy. Giving him a tough fight is his estranged kin VM Singh, one of the richest candidates, fielded by the Congress. Sources in BJP say that Varun is being seen as a future chief ministerial candidate of UP.

Maneka Gandhi, Varun’s mother, is contesting from Aonla on BJP ticket. She seemingly has no contest and it may be a cakewalk for her.

Saleem Shervani is the Congress candidate from Badaun. A former Allahabad-based industrialist, he quit the SP to contest on Congress ticket. His father MR Shervani was close to former PM Jawaharlal Nehru and the family has had a long history of Congress association. How the prodigal son of Congress fares, needs to be seen.

A new seat, Nagina, has been added after delimitation. In 2004, the tally of 13 seats, going to polls today, show that SP had the lion’s share, with six seats in its kitty. In fact, all others, BJP, Congress, BSP, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), JD (U) and independent had one seat each.

While SP’s stake is highest, BSP is eying a few more seats from this part of UP. This part of UP has large percentage of Muslim voters. Yadav’s hold would be put to test, as it is to be seen if Muslims still support him after his friendly embrace with the Babri Masjid demolition convict Kalyan Singh. If Congress does better, it would prove beyond doubt that Yadav’s gamble did not pay off.

BJP hopes to win the two seats of mother and sin duo from Aonla and Pilibhit. It is also hopeful that Naqvi may spring a surprise in Rampur.

The 14 constituencies going to polls in the last phase are: Amroha, Aonla, Bijnor, Bareilly, Badaun, Dhaurhara, Kheri, Moradabad, Nagina, Pilibhit, Rampur, Saharanpur, Samhal and Sahahjahanpur.

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Who'll gain from political gambles & games in UP?

Phase IV has laid bare the various gambles and games of political parties in UP. Underlying the claims, counter claims and various caste combinations of the political parties, one this is clear, voters are a dejected lot. Who wins need to be seen?

CJ: Arindam Roy, 7 May 2009 Views:516 Comments:0

IN THE fourth phase of polling, 18 constituencies in western and central Uttar Pradesh will decide the fate of many stalwarts in state and national politics. Several heads might roll. This phase needs to be watched closely.

Political pundits feel that Maulana Mulayam Singh’s gamble is calculated. He is not robbing Peter to pay Paul. He has embraced Kalyan Singh (a convict in Babri Masjid demolition) to add the Lodh votes to his Muslim-Yadav vote bank. And even if a section of the Muslims were to desert him, he would be more than compensated by the Lodh votes.

Political observers argue that the Samajwadi Party (SP) think tank, Janeshwar Mishra, adoring called Chhote Lohia, in all probability might have reasoned that just as Mayawati’s Dalit voters did not let her down, despite her shift from ‘Bahujan’ to ‘Sarvajan’, the Muslims too would not desert SP.

On Thursday (May 7), Yadav raised the decibel that whichever combine (read party / alliance) sacks the Mayawati government in UP, would get his support (he spoke a la Jayalalitha, who raised a similar demand about removing the DMK government in Tamil Nadu). The reason is simple. He wants to fish in troubled waters. Strangely, the SP is already laying down the pre-condition for support.

This follows Rahul Gandhi’s appreciating Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu and the Left. Both these leaders kept their options open it seemed. Poll arithmetic has become more important than electoral chemistry. This is perhaps what the 15th Lok Sabha elections would be remembered for.

Meanwhile, Congress sources claim that the voters are tired of the petty politics of Yadav and Mayawati. They now want stability. The Muslims and the backwards were promised the moon by the SP. If anyone gained it was Yadav and some select leaders of his party. They also add that the people had rejected the SP because it had become synonymous with gundaraj because of its alleged closeness to goons and mafias. BSP is not much different. This time the so-called Dalit party has fielded several criminals. That is the reason why the people want to reject BSP too. The gainer would naturally be the Congress party, as BJP is a spent force in the state.

BJP, on its part, is also stating similar arguments in its favour and is blaming the Congress for the various ills in the Centre and Mayawati for her ‘bad company’ in the state.

A lesser player, Ajit Singh, with his Jat vote bank too needs to be watched carefully. It’s to be seen if the BJP would gain from the Jats, who have quite a percentage in these 18 constituencies.

It may be added that in the last Lok Sabha elections (2004), SP gained the maximum of nine seats, while both Congress and BJP won three seats each. Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won two seats, while BSP barely managed one seat.

The game plan of Yadav is to increase his seat tally in this belt, which is his home turf. Congress too is eyeing this part of UP, hoping that the tipple effect of Delhi would pay off favourably. BSP has to increase its seat tally, if it has to score over Yadav.

Phase IV has laid bare the various gambles and games of political parties in UP. Underlying the claims, counter claims and various caste combinations of the political parties, one this is clear, the voters are a dejected lot in UP. They want a change but are not sure which way the wind will blow, going by the buzz in the state.

In Mainpuri, Yadav is at an advantage. Ajit’s fate hangs in Bhagpat, while Ghaziabad is a prestige issue for the BJP president Rajnath Singh.

The 18 constituencies where polling is on are: Mainpuri, Bhagpat, Ghaziabad, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Gautam Budddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Etah, Farukkhabad, Etawah and Kannauj.

(http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=15768626)

UP: Petty issues, voters' restlessness palpable

In the absence of national issues, it's petty issues that have surfaced in the third phase. This is a gross failure of two national parties, BJP and Congress. The ground reality is that there is terrible restlessness amongst the voters in UP.

CJ: Arindam Roy, 2 days ago Views:478 Comments:0

AS MAYAWATI is addressing an election rally in Mathura, polling is in progress in15 parliamentary constituencies of Uttar Pradesh, in the third phase, on Thursday (April 30), at the time of filing this report. The UP chief minister is busy campaigning for the fourth phase.

At the time of filing this report, the poll percentage in these constituencies was 15 per cent, till 11am. In these constituencies, 256 candidates are in fray. The total number of voters are 2.25 crore in these 15 seats. In 15,000 polling stations, over 28,000 EVMs will try the fate of the candidates.

The 15 constituencies are: Rae Bareli, Lucknow, Mohanlalganj, Unnao, Kanpur, Fatehpur, Mishrikh, Hardoi, Sitapur, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Barabanki and Bhairaich.

In the absence of national issues, it’s petty issues that have surfaced in the third phase. This is being seen as a gross failure of the two national parties, BJP and Congress, in UP. The ground reality is that there is terrible restlessness amongst the voters. But, politicians failed to capitalise it. The low turnout of voters is, in fact, a rejection by the body polity in this state, political observers opined.

Taposhi Sen, a school teacher from Lucknow is a little sad. With Atal Bihari Vajpayee not contesting from the state capital, having chosen to retire from active poll politics, it is no longer the star constituency that it used to be. Anukriti Joshi and Sanjay Verma, two first time voters of Lucknow felt that though the Samajwadi Party (SP) tried to bring colour by fielding cine actor Sanjay Dutt initially and later replacing him with Nafisa Ali, Vajpayee’s charisma is being missed by most.

The absence of national issues has exposed the bankruptcy of the political parties. They are more concerned with poll arithmetic and caste composition of these constituencies. The voters, on their part, are focusing developmental issues at local levels. This too has contributed in a low voter turnout.

Three villages of Mishrikh have decided to boycott the polling, as there has been no development in their villages. Roads, power, water have emerged as the central issue for them.

In a telephonic talk, Gaurav Singh, a businessman, from Kanpur, stated, “You can replace one political party with the other. The Congress and the BJP are busy accusing each other. The SP and BSP are no better. SP was rejected by people as it had fielded many criminals and now BSP too has repeated the same. For all political parties, its booth management that is more important than political ideology. In fact, there is acute lack of ideology.”

The saddest thing is that political think tanks of all parties have been pushed into oblivion, stated a senior BJP leader, off the record. He added that is the reason why goons and mafias are more important. They can perhaps manage booths better.

Few constituencies to watch would be Rae Bareli. Sonia Gandhi is sure to win from here. Former PM VP Singh’s son, Ajeya Singh, is contesting from Fatehpur on Jan Morcha ticket. Rita Bhauguna Joshi is no trying her luck from Lucknow, after an unsuccessful attempt on Congress ticket, from Allahabad, in 1999.

The contest in Lucknow is interesting as Nafisa Ali (SP) and Lalji Tandon (BJP) are challenging Akhilesh Das Gupta, the sitting MP of Congress, who switched over to BSP. A four-cornered tussle is on in the state capital.

In all other constituencies, it will be anything from three-cornered to five-cornered contests. Any prediction is therefore difficult. However, the restlessness of UP voters may be reflected in the final results, political pundits feel.

Constituencies and candidates:

Rae Bareli: Sonia Gandhi (Congress), RS Kushwaha (BSP) and RB Singh (BJP)

Lucknow: Nafisa Ali (SP), Rita Bahuguna Joshi (Congress), Lalji Tandon (BJP) and Dr Akhilesh Das Gupta (BSP)

Mohanlalganj: Sushila Saroj (SP), RK Chaudhury (RSP), Rajnan Kumar Choudhary (BJP) and Jai Prakash (BSP)

Unnao: Deepak Kumar (SP), Annu Tandon (Congress), Ramesh Kumar Singh (BJP), Arun Shankar Shukla (BSP) and Umesh Chandra (Apna Dal)

Kanpur: Surendra Mohan Agarwal (SP), Sriprakash Jaiswal (Congress), Satish Mahana (BJP) and Sukhda Mishra (BSP)

Fatehpur: Rakesh Sachan (SP), Vibhakar Shastri (Congress), Shyam Gupta (BJP), Mahendra Pratap Nishad (BSP) and Ajeya Singh (Jan Morcha)

Mishrikh: Shyam Prakash (SP), Om Prakash (Congress), Anil Kumar (BJP) and Ashok Kumar Rawat (BSP)

Hardoi: Usha Verma (SP), Purnima Verma (BJP) and Ram Kumar Kuril (BSP)

Sitapur: Mahendra Singh Verma (SP), Ram Lal Rahi (Congress), Gyan Tiwari (BJP) and Qaisar Jehan (BSP)

Akbarpur: Kamlesh Pathak (SP), Rajaram Pal (Congress), Arun Kumar (BJP) and Anil Shukla Varsi (BSP)

Jalaun: Ghanshyam Anuragi (SP), Dr Baburamdhin Ahirwar (Congress), Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma (BJP) and Tilak Chandra Ahirwar (BSP)

Jhansi: Chandrapal Singh Yadav (SP), Pradeep Kumar Jain (Congress), Ravindra Shukla (BJP) and Ramesh Kumar Sharma (BSP)

Hamirpur: Ashok Kumar Singh Chandel (SP), Siddha Gopal Sahu (Congress), Pritam Singh Lodhi (BJP) and Vijay Bahadur Singh (BSP)

Barabanki: Ram Sagar (SP), PL Punia (Congress) Ram Naresh Rawat (BJP) and Kamla Prasad Rawat (BSP)

Bhairaich: Shabeer Ahmad (SP), Kamal Kishore (Congress), Akshaybar Lal (BJP) and Lalmani Prasad (BSP)

(http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=15767893)